fix(mining): make "Est. Daily" honest about variance and fees

The mining "Est. Daily" was a solo expected-value (your hashrate share x
blocks/day x a fixed block reward) rendered in the same green as the real
Today / Yesterday / All-Time earnings, off an instantaneous hashrate and
gross of pool fees. It read like a dependable daily income when it is a
long-run statistical average with huge (Poisson) variance.

Framing:
- The estimate is now drawn in a neutral colour, not the green "money
  earned" colour (the actual mined totals stay green).
- A sub-label in BOTH modes marks it as an average ("avg", or "avg, net"
  in pool mode when the fee is applied), replacing the pool-only
  "before pool fee" note.
- A hover tooltip over the column explains the variance ("often nothing
  for long stretches, then a lump - NOT a steady daily income") and the
  fee status (after the N% fee / before the fee when unknown / nothing for
  solo and 0%-fee pools).

Accuracy:
- Uses a trailing-average hashrate instead of the instantaneous / 10s
  snapshot: pool prefers hashrate_15m (then 60s, then 10s); solo uses the
  mean of hashrate_history once there are >=10 samples, else the instant
  rate. This stops a spike or a momentary dip from swinging the figure.
- Subtracts the known pool fee so pool-mode figures are net; synthetic or
  unmatched pools stay gross and the tooltip says the fee is unknown.

The static block reward and true pool-reported earnings are intentionally
out of scope (the latter needs a new pool-API field). New i18n keys are
translated into all eight locales; the CJK subset font is rebuilt for the
three new glyphs. Builds + test suites pass on both variants.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/ui/windows/mining_earnings.cpp

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@
 #include "../../util/i18n.h"
 #include "../../util/platform.h"
 #include "../../config/settings.h"
+#include "../../util/pool_registry.h"
 #include "../schema/ui_schema.h"
 #include "../material/type.h"
 #include "../material/draw_helpers.h"
@@ -68,15 +69,38 @@ void RenderMiningEarnings(App* app, const WalletState& state, const MiningInfo&
                   minedAllTimeCount = earn.allTimeCount;
         const std::vector<MiningEarningsRecentTx>& recentMined = earn.recent;
 
-        // Est. Daily = expected reward for YOUR own hashrate share of the network. In pool mode this uses
-        // your local miner rate (pool_mining.hashrate_10s), NOT the pool's aggregate rate: pool payouts are
-        // share-proportional, so your expected daily is the same solo-equivalent value (a rough estimate,
-        // before the pool fee). Using the pool's total rate here would show the POOL's earnings, not yours. (M-05)
-        double estHashrate = s_pool_mode ? state.pool_mining.hashrate_10s : mining.localHashrate;
+        // Est. Daily is a statistical long-run AVERAGE of your reward for your hashrate share of the
+        // network -- NOT a steady income. Actual rewards arrive at random (Poisson): often nothing for
+        // long stretches, then a lump. We feed EstimateHoursToBlock a TRAILING-AVERAGE hashrate (not an
+        // instantaneous / 10s snapshot) so a spike or a momentary dip doesn't swing the figure, and in
+        // pool mode we subtract the known pool fee so the number is net. Pool payouts are share-
+        // proportional, so your expected daily equals this solo-equivalent value (using the pool's
+        // aggregate rate would show the POOL's earnings, not yours). (M-05 / A+B)
+        double estHashrate;
+        if (s_pool_mode) {
+            const auto& pm = state.pool_mining;
+            estHashrate = pm.hashrate_15m > 0.0 ? pm.hashrate_15m
+                        : pm.hashrate_60s > 0.0 ? pm.hashrate_60s
+                        : pm.hashrate_10s;                        // 15m avg preferred; fall back as it warms up
+        } else {
+            estHashrate = mining.localHashrate;
+            if (mining.hashrate_history.size() >= 10) {           // enough samples -> trailing mean
+                double sum = 0.0;
+                for (double h : mining.hashrate_history) sum += h;
+                estHashrate = sum / (double)mining.hashrate_history.size();
+            }
+        }
         double est_hours_2 = EstimateHoursToBlock(estHashrate, mining.networkHashrate, mining.difficulty);
         double estDailyBlocks = (est_hours_2 > 0) ? (24.0 / est_hours_2) : 0.0;
         double blockReward = schema::UI().drawElement("business", "block-reward").size;
         double estDaily = estDailyBlocks * blockReward;
+        // Pool fee: compile-time known fee for the configured pool (<0 = unknown/synthetic pool -> gross).
+        double estFeePct = -1.0;
+        if (s_pool_mode) {
+            const util::KnownPool* kp = util::findKnownPoolByUrl(state.pool_mining.pool_url);
+            if (kp && kp->feePercent >= 0.0) estFeePct = kp->feePercent;
+        }
+        if (s_pool_mode && estFeePct > 0.0) estDaily *= (1.0 - estFeePct / 100.0);
         bool estActive = isMiningActive && estDaily > 0;
 
         ImU32 greenCol2 = Success();
@@ -185,15 +209,19 @@ void RenderMiningEarnings(App* app, const WalletState& state, const MiningInfo&
                 snprintf(estVal, sizeof(estVal), "~%.4f", estDaily);
             else
                 snprintf(estVal, sizeof(estVal), "%s", TR("grpc_na"));
-            // Disclose in pool mode that Est. Daily is a rough solo-equivalent (before the pool fee), so the
-            // number isn't silently mismatched to its plain "Est. Daily" label. (M-05)
-            const char* estSub = (s_pool_mode && estActive) ? TR("mining_est_daily_pool_sub") : nullptr;
+            // Flag that Est. Daily is a long-run AVERAGE in both modes (so it doesn't read as realized
+            // income), and whether it is net of the pool fee. Tooltip below carries the full variance note.
+            const char* estSub = !estActive ? nullptr
+                               : (s_pool_mode && estFeePct > 0.0) ? TR("mining_est_daily_sub_net")
+                                                                  : TR("mining_est_daily_sub");
+            // Neutral (not green/"income") colour for the estimate — it's a probability, not money earned.
+            const ImU32 estCol = estActive ? OnSurfaceMedium() : OnSurfaceDisabled();
 
             EarningsEntry entries[] = {
                 { TR("mining_today"),      todayVal,      todaySub,      greenCol2 },
                 { TR("mining_yesterday"),  yesterdayVal,   yesterdaySub,   OnSurface() },
                 { TR("mining_all_time"),   allVal,         allSub,         OnSurface() },
-                { TR("mining_est_daily"), estVal,         estSub,         estActive ? greenCol2 : OnSurfaceDisabled() },
+                { TR("mining_est_daily"), estVal,         estSub,         estCol },
             };
 
             for (int ei = 0; ei < numCols; ei++) {
@@ -223,6 +251,27 @@ void RenderMiningEarnings(App* app, const WalletState& state, const MiningInfo&
                                 ImVec2(centerX - valSz.x * 0.5f, valY), entries[ei].col, entries[ei].value);
                 }
             }
+
+            // Hover tooltip over the Est. Daily column (last column): explain the Poisson variance and,
+            // in pool mode, whether the figure is net of the fee.
+            {
+                float estColX = cardMin.x + pad + (numCols - 1) * colW;
+                ImVec2 estMin(estColX, ey);
+                ImVec2 estMax(estColX + colW, cardMin.y + earningsRowH);
+                if (material::IsRectHovered(estMin, estMax)) {
+                    char tip[512];
+                    if (s_pool_mode && estFeePct > 0.0) {
+                        char feeNote[160];
+                        snprintf(feeNote, sizeof(feeNote), TR("tt_mining_est_daily_fee_fmt"), estFeePct);
+                        snprintf(tip, sizeof(tip), "%s\n%s", TR("tt_mining_est_daily"), feeNote);
+                    } else if (s_pool_mode && estFeePct < 0.0) {   // fee unknown (synthetic/unmatched pool)
+                        snprintf(tip, sizeof(tip), "%s\n%s", TR("tt_mining_est_daily"), TR("tt_mining_est_daily_nofee"));
+                    } else {   // solo, or a known 0%-fee pool (net == gross)
+                        snprintf(tip, sizeof(tip), "%s", TR("tt_mining_est_daily"));
+                    }
+                    material::Tooltip("%s", tip);
+                }
+            }
         }
 
         // === Separator between earnings & details ===

src/util/i18n.cpp

@@ -2184,6 +2184,11 @@ void I18n::loadBuiltinEnglish()
         strings_["mining_difficulty_copied"] = "Difficulty copied";
         strings_["mining_est_block"] = "Est. Block";
         strings_["mining_est_daily"] = "Est. Daily";
+        strings_["mining_est_daily_sub"] = "avg";
+        strings_["mining_est_daily_sub_net"] = "avg, net";
+        strings_["tt_mining_est_daily"] = "A long-run statistical average for your current hashrate share of the network. Real mining rewards arrive at random (Poisson) - often nothing for long stretches, then a lump - so this is NOT a steady daily income.";
+        strings_["tt_mining_est_daily_fee_fmt"] = "Shown after the %.1f%% pool fee.";
+        strings_["tt_mining_est_daily_nofee"] = "Shown before the pool fee (fee unknown for this pool).";
         strings_["mining_filter_all"] = "All";
         strings_["mining_filter_tip_all"] = "Show all earnings";
         strings_["mining_filter_tip_pool"] = "Show pool earnings only";